CHRISTIAN Porter’s win in Pearce could have a lot to do with a first preference swing to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party’s Sandy Old and less on the support of the Nationals.
On Sunday, May 19 with about 70 per cent of the vote counted in Pearce the candidate for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Sandy Old, according to the Australian Electoral Commission, has received 7.82 per cent of the first preference votes in the electorate.
This benefited Mr Porter due to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation putting the Liberals in front of Labor on the party’s how-to-vote cards in Pearce – last federal Election Pauline Hanson’s One Nation put sitting members last, which disadvantaged the Coalition.
At the same time the National’s Steve Blyth only recorded 1.35 per cent of the first preference votes.
Just some of the positive swings Mrs Old registered include Two Rocks 10.29 per cent, Yanchep North 9.12 per cent, Woodridge 16.18 per cent, Gingin 8.70 per cent, Ledge Point 9.35 per cent, Alkimos 5.14 per cent and Butler East 7.85 per cent.
Meanwhile, some of Mr Blyth’s negative swings include Lancelin 10.18 per cent, Gingin 7.92 per cent, Guilderton 8.12 per cent, Ledge Point 13.16 per cent and Seabird 16.24 per cent.
The Australian Electoral Commission data shows in the first preference count Labor candidate for Pearce Kim Travers recorded a negative swing of 4.01 per cent while Mr Porter registered a negative swing of 1.66 per cent.
Once preferences were allocated (and with 59 of 64 polling places returned and 69.48 per cent of votes counted) the two candidate preferred count showed a 3.14 per cent swing away from Ms Travers to Mr Porter.
The same trend appears to have happened across the country with ABC chief election analyst Antony Green saying early this morning that nationally the Coalition vote was down a little while Labor was down 1.4 per cent.
“It’s the flow from the third parties which has created quite a difference here,’’ he said.
“When that converts into two-party preferred there is a 1.5 per swing to the Coalition across the country.’’
In the coming days the focus will shift from the negative campaign run by the Morrison government to what might be a minority government.
At this stage, according to the Australian Electoral Commission, the Coalition has won 70 seats (with two close seats still in doubt) compared with Labor’s 67 seats (and one seat still in doubt).
Mr Green analysis shows five seats in doubt with the Coalition having won 75 seats and Labor 65 seats.
Mr Porter and the Morrison Government will then likely start looking at the tax plan they announced in the 2019 Federal Budget.
The tax plan included lifting the low and middle income tax offset so that everyone earning less than $126,000 a year would get a tax reduction in this year’s tax return (2018-19) and then another one for each of the following three years.
The Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook 2019 signed in April said the immediate relief to low- and middle-income earners component of the Lower taxes for hard-working Australians: Building on the Personal Income Tax Plan measure required the relevant legislation to be passed before the increase to the low and middle income tax offset could be provided for the 2018-19 financial year.